165
FXUS64 KBRO 172359 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
* A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL BRING MODERATE TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT
SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
* TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 15-30 DEGREES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE RAIN EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD AND BENEFICIAL. CHANCES TOMORROW NIGHT RANGE
BETWEEN 70-90% AND STAY HIGH (70-80%) ON SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN (AROUND 60-70%) FOR BOTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HANG AROUND OUR
AREA LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES, WITH
SOME AREAS RECEIVING CLOSER TO 3-4 INCHES IN AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER PLACED OUR ENTIRE CWA UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY. THIS MEANS
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR NUISANCE AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY. ON SUNDAY, SOME AREAS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
MAY NOT EVEN REACH 70 DEGREES, BUT THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS
SUPPOSED TO BE CLOSER THE MID-70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. BE THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT,
INCLUDING LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED SURF, AS WELL
AS SOME POTENTIAL BEACH RUN-UP NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES, AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SOME LOW PASSING STRATUS CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID-MORNING SATURDAY WITH
SOME BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, SCEC CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN
THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, SCEC CONDITIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE TOWARDS FAVORABLE. SCEC
CONDITIONS COULD THEN DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 88 68 76 / 0 0 70 80
HARLINGEN 71 90 64 75 / 0 0 70 70
MCALLEN 74 93 65 73 / 0 10 80 80
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 93 62 68 / 0 10 90 70
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 71 74 / 0 0 70 80
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 86 67 76 / 0 0 70 80
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...63-KC
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