431
FXUS64 KBRO 181118 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
618 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL BRING MODERATE TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
* MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT
SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
* TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 15-30 DEGREES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGH
TEMPEATURES IN THE LOWER 90S, EXCEPT FOR THE 80S NEAR THE COAST.
MODERATE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS HIGH (70-90%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD AND BENEFICIAL RAIN CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF FRONT. WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PORTION OVER
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE/COASTAL
THROUGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES, WITH
SOME AREAS RECEIVING CLOSER TO 3-4 INCHES IN AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANY SLOW MOVING HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR NUISANCE AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOL, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, MAY REMAIN IN THE MID
60S. IN FACT, THE LATEST NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY
REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS RANCHLANDS. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES, CLOSER TO THE NBM25. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE MAINLY IN THE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
ON TUESDAY AND ABOVE BY LATE WEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT, INCLUDING LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED
SURF, AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL BEACH RUN-UP NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES,
AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF
VFR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF CYCLE. AROUND MID-MORNING,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS OR LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET SHOULD DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY BEFORE EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD THEN DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 88 69 74 68 / 0 70 90 70
HARLINGEN 90 64 73 64 / 0 70 80 70
MCALLEN 92 64 70 64 / 10 70 80 70
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 59 65 59 / 20 70 80 60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 71 73 70 / 0 60 80 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 68 75 67 / 0 60 80 70
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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