536
FXUS64 KBRO 191815
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
115 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* MEDIUM TO LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN
TOMORROW, POSSIBLY BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
ALONG/EAST OF US-281 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
* BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WAVES, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TONIGHT AS WELL AS
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST AS WELL,
RISING FROM THE 50S/60 TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO THE 70S TOMORROW.
* SUNNIER SKIES RESUMES TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND INTO
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT, A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, LEAVING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, CLOUDY SKIES, BREEZY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH) AREAS OF
DRIZZLE INLAND AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG/NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AT
THIS TIME. THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, SHORT TERM
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN US, SETTING UP SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW OVER THE GULF, PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWESTWARD OVER
OUR REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING; ON-AND-OFF LIGHT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE WITH A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (50-90%) THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES WEST TOWARD MEXICO DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, EASTERLY WINDS RETURN ON ITS BACKSIDE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY REDEVELOP SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-70%) CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE TOMORROW NIGHT,
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY
TO BE ALONG/EAST OF US-281, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE OVER 2 INCHES WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN SETS UP TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH WPC HAS REMOVED THE
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
LOW-LYING AREAS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW. HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST, WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN
AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE UPPER RGV.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING, DRY
CONDITIONS (LESS THAN 10% POPS) SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK, THOUGH COASTAL TROUGHING COULD
MAINTAIN A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING BY A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND
FALLING A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT, REMAINING IN THE 60S ALONG/EAST OF
US-281 AND IN THE 50S FURTHER WEST. EASTERLY FLOW TOMORROW LEADS
TO HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO THE 60S
TOMORROW NIGHT. BREAKS IN OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY,
GRADUALLY BECOMING SUNNIER THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WARMING
FROM THE 80S ON TUESDAY INTO THE 80S/90S ON WEDNESDAY ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM THIS EVENING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM
TONIGHT. FACTORING IN WAVE PERIODS OF 7-8 SECONDS WITH ELEVATED
SEAS, A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT/HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SWIMMING AT THE BEACHES IS NOT
RECOMMENDED AS LIFE-THREATENING CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS SURF
PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, 4-6 SM VIS. AND IFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW BY MID-DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS RESUME TUESDAY. A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-
80%) CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 65 78 70 82 / 80 60 50 40
HARLINGEN 62 78 66 84 / 80 70 50 40
MCALLEN 62 78 68 86 / 80 60 50 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 76 65 86 / 80 50 50 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 76 73 78 / 80 70 50 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 78 69 82 / 80 70 50 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-
454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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