449
FXUS64 KBRO 202344
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
644 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, AROUND 20-25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%)
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING
AND A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING
BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S (NEAR THE COAST) TO UPPER 90S (WEST)
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AS THE REGION REMAINS BENEATH A BLANKET OF STRATUS CLOUDS WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES
AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL, WITH MOST AREAS
OBSERVING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY,
ALTHOUGH LIGHT DRIZZLE OR RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL WARM, GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER
AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.....
KEY AVIATION IDSS MESSAGES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY:
* MVFR-LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TO THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
CYCLE IS THE MVFR-LIFR CIGS AND TRENDS. AS OF 6:35 PM CDT, THE
LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BKN-
OVC DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH CEILINGS RANGING BETWEEN
2,000-2,500 FEET AGL AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. A FEW SPRINKLES
WERE AROUND, BUT THE MAIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OVERHEAD THAT
HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OR GOING INTO TONIGHT, CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER IN ELEVATION WITH IFR TO AT TIMES LIFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. IFR- LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWING IMPROVEMENTS AS THE WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT AWAY TO OUR NORTH.
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, FLYING CONDITIONS COULD RETURN
TO VFR/MVFR AS CLOUD COVERAGE IMPROVES. HAVE VCSH MENTIONS THIS
EVENING AND PROB30 HEADLINES AT TIMES ON TUESDAY TO ACKNOWLEDGE
THE POSSIBILITY OR PRESENCE OF SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING COASTAL TROUGH.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IF NOT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH MAGNITUDES BETWEEN
5-10 KTS. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS OR SO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE.
EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 4-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE FALLING
TO 2-4 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 70 80 71 86 / 40 30 10 10
HARLINGEN 67 81 68 88 / 40 30 10 10
MCALLEN 67 82 72 91 / 30 30 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 63 83 70 90 / 40 20 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 77 73 79 / 40 30 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 78 70 84 / 40 30 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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