276
FXUS64 KBRO 252352 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
652 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 652 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. COULD SEE
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK NEXT WEEK.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS/SEAS MAY SLIGHTLY
HINDER BOATING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE ZAPATA AND PARTS OF STARR
AND JIM HOGG IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVED CLOUD
COVERAGE AND THE STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION CONFIDENCE IS LOW
RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER SHOULD STORMS BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP THE
REST OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO THOSE STORMS
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AS SUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE
DIGITS, AND GENERALLY RAIN-FREE FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, HEAT RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE BIG FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SEES A MIXTURE OF
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR THOSE DAYS. THUS IT WILL BE
IMPORTANT TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY SUCH AS LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS
AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER TO STAY HYDRATED.
SEVERAL OF THE CURRENT FORECAST MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LOW CHANCE (ABOUT 20%) OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW
FAR OUT THIS FRONT IS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS EVENT AT THE
CURRENT TIME, BUT FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE GIVEN BASED ON THE
TRENDS THE MODELS TAKE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RAISE TO
MVFR LEVELS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
RETURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
MODERATE TO BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. BRIEF
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 72 94 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 76 98 77 99 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 100 74 101 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 83 76 83 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 88 74 91 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64
LONG TERM....64
AVIATION...60-BE
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