957
FXUS64 KBRO 260405
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. COULD SEE
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK THROUGH MID WEEK.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY HINDER
BOATING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT HOT AND GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. A
DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SIERRA MADRE UP
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, AND MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE CAPE VALUES, WIND SHEAR, AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, A CAPPING INVERSION AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTION, OR MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. AS
SUCH, THE PROBABILITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MAKING
IT TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IS VERY LOW (<10%), HOWEVER IF
ANY STORM DOES REACH THE CWA IT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
BARRING ANY SEVERE CONVECTION, HEAT WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY CLIMBING TO
105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES
MAY BRIEFLY PEAK HIGHER TO 112 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE SPATIAL EXTENT LIKELY WON’T REQUIRE A HEAT
ADVISORY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FALLING SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RAISE TO
MVFR LEVELS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
RETURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY BRIEFLY BE NEEDED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF WATERS, LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE, THOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 15-20
KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 72 94 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 76 98 77 99 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 100 74 101 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 83 76 83 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 88 74 91 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60
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