223
FXUS64 KBRO 270358
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1058 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT AREAS BEACHES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON ON THE
LAGUNA MADRE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA MADRE UP
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF ANY CONVECTION MAKING IT TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS REMAINS VERY LOW (<10%). HIGH CAPE VALUES AND AMPLE WIND
SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE
CWA TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE, HOWEVER A CAPPING INVERSION AND DRY
MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER CONVECTION. EXTENDED RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND RRFS BOTH SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE BORDER.
HEAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT
INDICES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH, THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT AND BREAK SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS INCREASING AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE
LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON MAY PROMPT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND, LIKELY RESULTING IN ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 73 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 77 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 100 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 83 76 83 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60
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