070
FXUS64 KBRO 280331
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1031 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY, WITH A MODERATE TO
MAJOR (LEVELS 2/4 AND 3/4) HEAT RISK, AS WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
"REAL FEEL" TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) OF 105-110 F ARE LIKELY,
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY SURPASSING 110 F ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER AND MIDDLE RGV.
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THIS FRIDAY, COOLING
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A MODERATE
HEAT RISK ON WEDNESDAY AND A MINOR (LEVEL 1/4) TO MODERATE
RISK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* COLD FRONT ARRIVES POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FROM DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
* MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A SLIGHTLY ANOMALISTIC MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE (~591 DAM)
REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE
PARTS OF THIS WEEK, MAINTAINING STRONG CONTROL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND TEMPERATURES
RUNNING AROUND 5-10 ABOVE AVERAGE INTO WEDNESDAY; HIGHS SOAR INTO
THE MID/UPPER 90S ALONG/EAST OF US-281 WHILE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S
ARE ANTICIPATED FURTHER WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE 70S. THE
HOTTEST AND MORE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE PROGGED FOR TUESDAY
AS BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW, GUSTING TO 20-30+ MPH, AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT RESULT IN A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2/4 AND
3/4) HEAT RISK, WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 105-110
F, THOUGH COULD BRIEFLY SURPASS 110 F NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RGV. FOLLOWING, DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
WEST COAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN
THE MID-LEVEL HIGH, THUS EASING ON SUBSIDENCE AND ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO "COOL" TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, THOUGH STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY; A MODERATE
HEAT RISK ON WEDNESDAY (HEAT INDEX AROUND 100-108 F) LESSENS
SLIGHTLY TO A MINOR (LEVEL 1/4) TO MODERATE HEAT RISK ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH INDICES REACHING TO NEAR 100 F ACROSS THE RGV AND
A BIT COOLER FURTHER NORTH. LOOKING TO ESCAPE THIS BRUTAL HEAT?
HEAD TO SOUTH PADRE ISLAND! HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, BE VERY CAUTIOUS IF
VENTURING INTO THE GULF AS BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, 3-5 FOOT
WAVES AND 6-7 SEC. WAVE PERIODS LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BRIEF PASSING RAIN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. YET, DRIER PWAT
FROM SINKING AIR ARE MORE LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION INITIATION
THIS FAR SOUTH.
AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXIT THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE LOW'S BACKSIDE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE POOLING, FRONTAL LIFT AND SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT ARE CURRENTLY POSING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CHANCES OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME FRIDAY TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS, BUT WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE RECOVERY OVER THE GULF AND MID-LEVELS IN WAKE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT ADVECTS NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE WEEKEND, WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S/60S AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S/80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS, SCATTERED AT TIMES, ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
RESUME TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY BY THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
DRY WEATHER, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, MODERATE (3-5
FT) SEAS AND PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN FROM DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY TO AS
MUCH AS A MEDIUM (40-50%) CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH
AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY PREVAILING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES. CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AND WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 74 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 78 99 77 98 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 102 74 100 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 76 83 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 90 73 89 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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