942
FXUS64 KBRO 281726
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* HEAT RISK (MODERATE TO MAJOR THE REST OF TODAY; MINOR TO MODERATE
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK) CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
* A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL BRING
COOLER, MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
* THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION,
SUPPORTING WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED HEAT INDICES WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK TODAY, BUT SHOULD STILL BE OF SOME
CONCERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING, AND WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY'S HIGHS
WILL BE PLEASANT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MONDAY BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING DOWN INTO
THE MID-50S.
THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, AND WILL
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, NO FLOODING CONDITIONS OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 01Z,
BUT WILL CLEAR AND RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED IN BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF, AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY MONDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS CALM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 91 75 89 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 73 95 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 77 98 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 100 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 76 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 89 74 87 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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