584
FXUS64 KBRO 291130
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND AFTERNOON "REAL-
FEEL" TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 F RESULT IN MAINLY A
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT RISK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY EASES BEGINNING THURSDAY,
LEADING TO A MINOR (LEVEL 1/4) TO MODERATE HEAT RISK ON FRIDAY.
- COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF
RAIN, BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
- DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND RISKS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. 591 DAM MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A
DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN
TEXAS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES HELPS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AS
WELL AS SLOWLY PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY,
SOME CAMS AND GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL ADVERTISE A LOW CHANCE
OF THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE KICKING OFF SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO MOSTLY THE
MID/UPPER 90S, THOUGH COULD HIT CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK IN A FEW
LOCATIONS WEST OF US-281. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DECREASE A BIT TO END THE WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. YET, FACTORING IN THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, GUSTING TO 20-30+ MPH, A
MODERATE HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR MOST INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PEAK AROUND 100-105 F.
LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS LEAD TO A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK IS
ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE LOWER
100S ACROSS THE RGV AND INLAND PORTIONS ALONG/EAST OF I-69 E.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S CONTINUE ALONG/NEAR THE COAST, WHERE A MINOR
HEAT RISK PREVAILS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN TEXAS EJECTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS SWEEPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
TO THE 50S/60S. BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AS CHANCES OF RAIN
DECREASE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY AND
BECOME NEAR AVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN BY MONDAY.
A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES OF 3-4 FEET AND 6-7 SEC.
PERIODS PREVAIL. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL AS POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
DRY WEATHER, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, MODERATE (3-5
FT) SEAS AND PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN FROM DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY TO AS
MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY PREVAILING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES. CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AND WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 76 83 76 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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