436
FXUS64 KBRO 291747
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR A SHORT
TIME BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THIS TIME
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
ONCE AGAIN, NOT TOO MUCH AS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A VERY SMALL PORTION OF
NORTHERN ZAPATA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
(CAM) HAVE BEEN RATHER MIXED ON THIS SITUATION. WITH SOME SHOWING A
THUNDERSTORM OR A SHOWER MAKING IT IN TO SOME NOT SHOWING ANYTHING
AT ALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME, THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE HEAT AS THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90 AND TRIPLE DIGITS.
AS SUCH THE HEAT RISK FOR TOMORROW IS MOSTLY MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF
4), WITH SMALL PORTIONS OF MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) AND JUST A BIT OF
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4). IT IS IMPORTANT PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY IN THESE
CONDITIONS SO LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER.
HOWEVER, WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE TO HELP THAT COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, THERE COULD BE LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GOOD
CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR ABOUT A DAY AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER, THIS COOL DOWN WILL NOT
LAST LONG AS THE HEAT RETURNS BY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK UP AGAIN AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE HIGHS COULD
BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S. THIS FRONT WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A BIT
OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HOPEFULLY A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
WHILE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AND VFR CEILINGS FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. BY
THIS EVENING THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. GUSTY
WINDS AND VFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
WHILE A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY
FAVORABLE, THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTIVE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
IN ITS WAKE CAUSE ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WITH
WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 8 TO 9 FEET POSSIBLE FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS TO BE LIKELY NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 90 76 92 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 73 93 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 76 95 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 96 74 95 / 10 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 76 84 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 88 74 90 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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