193
FXUS64 KBRO 101117 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
* THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, EXPECT FOR RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NORMAL TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO THE MID 90S WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF IH-69C.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
MVFR TO VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A VCTS REMAINS IN THE TAFS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE
EVENING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 77 87 74 / 10 30 40 0
HARLINGEN 91 74 86 70 / 10 40 40 0
MCALLEN 93 76 88 73 / 10 30 40 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 75 87 72 / 10 50 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 78 82 77 / 10 40 30 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 76 86 74 / 0 40 30 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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