930
FXUS64 KBRO 102309
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
609 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
BETTER CHANCE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
* THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL LATE TONIGHT.
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE MORNING SOUNDING AT BRO SHOWED PWAT AT 1.86 INCHES, ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY TO MID MAY, MEANING THERE REMAINS AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE PERSISTENT MVFR
CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING HELPS CONFIRM THIS AS WELL. THERE IS
PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND WITH A
CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 91, AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ROAMING AROUND,
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ACROSS TYPICAL SEA BREEZE LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, WORKING GENERALLY INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CAMS
ARE AGAIN WIDELY VARIED ON CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TIMING AND
LOCATION, BUT ALL DEVELOP SOMETHING, LENDING CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN CAN PEEK OUT
CONSISTENTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM UP NORTH IS WORKING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. ANY SIERRA
MADRE CONVECTION COULD PAIR WITH THIS FRONT OR BRING A COUPLE OF
STORMS INTO ZAPATA COUNTY THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC HAS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM. WPC IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING ZAPATA, JIM HOGG,
STARR, AND WESTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT, MEANING ANY
PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A FLOODING RAIN
THREAT.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, IF ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF
A WIND THREAT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY, IF ANYTHING IS STILL HANGING TOUGH BY THEN.
THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT DRIES OUT AND GRADUALLY WARMS UP INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY....THE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND SFC OBS
INDICATED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES UNDER A SCT-BKN
DECK OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. TOWERING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED SO THE SOUTHWEST OF MFE AND
COLD IMPACT THE SITE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS HRL AND BRO. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. FOR NOW,
HAVE VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MFE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, I HAVE PROB30
GROUPS FOR ALL THE TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS EVENING AND/OR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY REDUCING
CIGS/VSBYS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. BEHIND TO COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15 KTS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BRIEFLY ELEVATES SEAS AND WINDS, BEFORE
MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH
DRIER AND MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 87 74 87 / 40 30 0 0
HARLINGEN 74 86 70 86 / 50 30 0 0
MCALLEN 76 87 73 88 / 50 40 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 86 72 87 / 60 40 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 82 77 81 / 40 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 85 74 85 / 50 30 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page