790
FXUS64 KBRO 110356
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1056 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* KEEPING AN EYE ON POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS,
FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY (ZAPATA, NORTHERN STARR,
JIM HOGG) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY
* CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY LATER MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MID-MAY AND ONLY A MINOR HEAT RISK
* AFTER SOME UNSETTLED WINDS AND SURF MONDAY, FAVORABLE MARINE,
COASTAL, AND BEACH CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
* HEAT RISK RETURNS TO MODERATE OR HIGHER LEVELS BY NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY: THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SEVEN-DAY PERIOD EXISTS RIGHT OFF THE
BAT. AFTER EARLY EVENING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE
UPPER VALLEY SUNDAY, CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED, FOR NOW. HOWEVER, AN
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE HAS FORMED, AND AS OF 1030 PM EXTENDED FROM SAN
ANTONIO THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF EAGLE PASS. A COMBINATION OF CAMS
MODELS AND INCOMING SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SENSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES - AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING SQUALL-LINE TYPE WINDS -
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY AREAS OF ZAPATA, JIM
HOGG, AND NORTHERN STARR...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO BROOKS AND KENEDY,
ARRIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AM. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE
POPULATED RIO GRANDE VALLEY, INCREASING OVERNIGHT STABILITY AND
CAPPING FAVOR WEAKENING/DISSIPATING THREAT AS THE LINE...PUSHED BY A
WEAK FRONT...MOVES SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM. STORM PREDICTION
CENTER ALSO AGREED WITH THIS, AS THEIR 730 PM UPDATE ALLUDED TO
WEAKENING OF THE LINE INTO THE INCREASINGLY STABLE/CAPPED AIR.
ALL THIS SAID...SURFACE AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY/LINE IS QUITE WARM
AND STICKY, AND THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER 4K J/KG. SO...IF FOR SOME REASON, A MORE
ROBUST SQUALL LINE ACCELERATES AT PACE LATE TONIGHT (AND A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED), THE POPULATED RGV COULD SEE MORE PRONOUNCED
ACTIVITY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOR NOW, THAT PROBABILITY LIKELY SITS
AT 10% OR LESS, SO WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT.
AS FOR RAINFALL...WPC HAS THESE AREAS OUTLOOKED FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING (MARGINAL - LEVEL 1 OF 4) BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT
OF ANY STRONGER CELLS, MORE NUISANCE FLOODING WOULD BE MORE THE
CASE.
THE RECENTLY ARRIVED BLENDED SUITE OF NEAR-TERM FORECAST DATA
MATCHES THIS THINKING, SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
REST OF MONDAY: WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DRIER, MORE
STABLE AIR FILTERS IN STEADILY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE (MAINLY 80S).
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: IF YOU HAVE SOME TIME TO SPARE, THIS
IS TRUE "BONUS WEATHER" FOR THE REGION, AS WE SIT UNDERNEATH THE
FRONT SIDE OF A MODEST (FOR MID MAY) 500 MB RIDGE AND THE BACK SIDE
OF FAIRLY ROBUST EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING. DRY AIR SLIDES ACROSS MOST
OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
LOWERING HUMIDITY, GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS, AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAY SUN WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WHILE
MORNINGS WILL DAWN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 (MID 60S IN
PREFERRED COOLER SPOTS) - ALSO, 2-4 DEGREES BELOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: THE EASTERN TROUGH WEAKENS/PULLS
AWAY, AND THE 500 MB RIDGE THAT EXTENDED ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS GETS
FLATTENED TO NORTHERN MEXICO. TROUGHING PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS HELPS TO BRING SURFACE TROUGHING TO WEST TEXAS, WITH THE
RESULRING INCREASE IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR THE REGION BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT ENDS THE "BONUS
WEATHER" QUICKLY, AND RETURNS SULTRY NIGHTS AND HOT/HUMID DAYS TO
THE REGION. MODERATE HEAT RISK RETURNS AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES
BUILD BACK INTO THE 103-107 RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY....THE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND SFC OBS
INDICATED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES UNDER A SCT-BKN
DECK OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. TOWERING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED SO THE SOUTHWEST OF MFE AND
COLD IMPACT THE SITE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS HRL AND BRO. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. FOR NOW,
HAVE VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MFE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, I HAVE PROB30
GROUPS FOR ALL THE TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS EVENING AND/OR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY REDUCING
CIGS/VSBYS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. BEHIND TO COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15 KTS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY: THE KEY CONCERN WILL BE
IMPACT FROM WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
CONVECTION/SQUALL LINE BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD THE LINE HOLD
TOGETHER, WE COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE GUSTS DUE TO ANY
WAKE LOW/MESO HIGH DEVELOPMENTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD.
OTHERWISE, THE CONCERN WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
TIMING COULD LINE UP WITH ANY EARLY MORNING FISHING TRIPS, SO
BOATERS MAY WISH TO POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL WHATEVER STORMS THERE ARE
NO LONGER POSE A THREAT.
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: FRESHENING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TOWARD 4 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
PERIOD, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BACK TO 5-10 KNOTS (FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST)AND SEAS TO BECOME MAINLY SLIGHT (2-3 FEET) WITH NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF, SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS AND GRADUALLY INCREASES, WITH
PERHAPS CAUTION LEVEL WINDS ARRIVING LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 87 74 87 / 40 30 0 0
HARLINGEN 74 86 70 86 / 50 30 0 0
MCALLEN 76 87 73 88 / 50 40 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 86 72 87 / 60 40 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 82 77 81 / 40 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 85 74 85 / 50 30 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52-GOLDSMITH
LONG TERM....52-GOLDSMITH
AVIATION...52-GOLDSMITH
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