346
FXUS64 KBRO 120335
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1035 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
* HEAT RISK COULD BEGIN BUILDING NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK; WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK WITH
POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS FORECASTED.
* THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL, FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND A 588-591
DAM HEAT RIDGE IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE OUT FOR NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN
TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED.
MULTIPLE FORECAST AND AI/ML MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN APPROACHING OR NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEM. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE
LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. AGAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS ON THE CHANCE FOR THE PATTERN BECOMING A BIT
MORE UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) HAS
OUTLOOKED MUCH OF TEXAS INCLUDING ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A
MEDIUM (50-60%) CHANCE FOR A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IN IT'S
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH COVERS MAY 17-21.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL RUNE WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA
(I.E. ZAPATA AND STARR COUNTIES). OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 00Z TAF CYCLE.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL
WEAKEN WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH, IF NOT
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. MODERATE SEAS COULD
BEGIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 87 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 69 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 72 88 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 88 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 81 75 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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