239
FXUS64 KBRO 122255
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE
80S/90S TODAY AND TOMORROW TO THE MID/UPPER 90S LATER THIS
WEEK.
* MINOR HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 1 OF 4) CONTINUE, DETERIORATING TO A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OF 4) OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BUILD TO
105-110 F.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND/OR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CURRENTLY A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%)
CHANCE AT MOST.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, IMPROVING TO A LOW RISK THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHEASTERLY TODAY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN US GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MAINTAINS DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL. TROUGHING AND A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS LEADS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE LATER IN THE WEEK, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
THURSDAY, WITH ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO
20-30+ MPH EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION,
WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S TODAY AND
TOMORROW UP TO WIDESPREAD 90S BY THURSDAY, BECOMING MOSTLY
MID/UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. BUILDING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A WARMING TREND IN MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT RISKS, RISING AND ESCALATING FROM THE LOW/MID 90S WITH MINOR
HEAT RISKS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS INDICES SOAR
TO 105-110 F; SPSS OR HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THOUGH TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE (15- 30%) FOR THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE. YET, POPS DON'T INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ENHANCING FORCING AND
ASCENSION ALOFT, BRINGING A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT ALSO WARM UP,
WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ONLY COOLING TO THE LOW 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
IMPROVING TO A LOW RISK THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
MIST/LOW STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
(1-3 FT) SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. CHANCES OF
RAIN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE IN THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 68 89 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 64 89 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 68 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 81 75 83 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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