871
FXUS64 KBRO 130316
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1016 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
* HEAT RISK COULD BEGIN BUILDING NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK; WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK WITH
POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS FORECASTED.
* THERE REMAINS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL,
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND A 588-591 DAM HEAT RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT
MORE UNSETTLED.
MULTIPLE FORECAST AND AI/ML MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING OR NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEM. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW-
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. AGAIN, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS ON THE CHANCE FOR THE PATTERN BECOMING A BIT MORE UNSETTLED
NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) CONTINUES TO HAVE
MUCH OF TEXAS INCLUDING ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MEDIUM
(50- 60%) CHANCE FOR A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IN IT'S 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK WHICH COVERS MAY 18-22.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA
(I.E. ZAPATA AND STARR COUNTIES). OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
MIST/LOW STRATUS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. HOWEVER, MORE ADVERSE (I.E.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION) CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END SCEC TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
FROM AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 68 89 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 64 89 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 68 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 81 75 83 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page