497
FXUS64 KBRO 141112 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
612 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* MOISTENING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE MINOR HEAT RISKS
(LEVEL 1/4) TO A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT RISK BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
* A MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 3/4) IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALONG/EAST OF I-69 E.
* THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF
RAIN TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
* A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, LIKELY TO BECOME A MODERATE RISK BY THIS WEEKEND AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENHANCE.
* BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS MEXICO AND TO THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH THIS WEEK, MAINTAINING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, CREATING A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE SIERRA MADRE. PRESSURE FALLS
INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, LIKELY GUSTING UP TO 20-30+ MPH EACH
AFTERNOON, HIGHEST ALONG/EAST OF US-281. LATER THIS WEEKEND,
TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER ALOFT, POTENTIALLY SPARKING DAILY
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, BRINGING AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT ALONG/WEST OF US-281,
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. ENHANCED FORCING AND POSSIBLE SHORTWAVES
ALOFT MAY HELP TO EXPAND CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ALSO A 20-40% CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL,
RISING TO THE LOW/MID 90S FURTHER EAST AND MID/UPPER 90S FURTHER
WEST, PWAT VALUES HIKE AND PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE PLAINS TRANSPORT
DEEPER, MORE TROPICAL, GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR
REGION. SO, FACTORING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY, MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE
WEEKEND FROM 95-100 F ON FRIDAY TO 105-110 F BY SUNDAY, EVEN
WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME, WE EXPECT A MINOR HEAT RISK TO ELEVATE TO A MODERATE
HEAT RISK BY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A MAJOR HEAT RISK DEVELOPING
ALONG/EAST OF I-69 E BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE COULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE SOME
OF THE HEAT AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY BECOME WARMER, MUGGIER AND BREEZIER, WARMING FROM THE
60S/70S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO AS WARM AS THE 70S/80S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS NEAR 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MEDIUM RISK BY THE WEEKEND AFTER AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENHANCE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME PATCHY FOG, MAINLY NEAR HRL, POTENTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT A SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH, STRONG AT TIMES
WHILE SLIGHT (1-2 FT) SEAS BUILD TO MODERATE (3-6 FT, OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER). THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 95 72 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 77 83 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 74 89 76 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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