596
FXUS64 KBRO 141718
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1218 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
* HEAT RISK RETURNS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
* LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE DISTURBANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS. THERE IS
A MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) HEAT RISK THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY. HEAT RISK WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-69C, AND
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OFF OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS OF NOW, CHANCES ARE LOW TO MODERATE
(30 TO 40%). CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR TUESDAY, BUT AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AND CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AT AROUND 30 TO
40% FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL AIRPORTS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING SCEC AND
POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. THESE COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 95 72 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 77 83 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 74 89 76 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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