178
FXUS64 KBRO 152253 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 550 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
1 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
* A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4) THIS
WEEKEND BECOME A MOSTLY MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) THIS
SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
* HEAT RISKS DE-ESCALATE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS
UNSETTLED WEATHER GRADUALLY INCREASES CHANCES OF RAIN TO AS
MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR THE
WEATHER OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS SUCH, WE CAN EXPECT VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES (LESS THAN
10%) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 105-110 F DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK FOR THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS THAT THE MAJOR HEAT RISK IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES KEEP THE HEAT INDICES BELOW
THE CRITERIA FOR HEAT ADVISORY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FORECAST
COULD CHANGE AND FOR A HEAT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED. AN SPS FOR
ELEVATED HEAT INDICES COULD ALSO BE ISSUED AS WELL IF THE HEAT
INDICES CONTINUE TO BE BORDERLINE TO HEAT ADVISORY AS WELL.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE MOVING BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT THE
SUPPORT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL
OUT AROUND THAT AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ALSO PUSH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OUT OF THE REGION. FACTORING IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO BRING IN MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE
THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE LOW TO MEDIUM (AROUND 30-
40%), THEY DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY TO
GENERALLY MORE MEDIUM (AROUND 50%). GIVEN THAT THIS PART FORECAST
STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMOVED, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
FURTHER CHANGES THAT COME IN AS MODEL TRENDS COULD CHANGE FURTHER.
EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN, CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, SO THAT WILL HELP REDUCE THE
HEAT A BIT.
MEANWHILE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CARRY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
MVFR TO VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WHILE THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ADVERSE FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, THUS SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AGAIN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AS WINDS AND
SEAS BECOME ELEVATED. THUS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEING NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 91 80 93 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 72 92 78 94 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 75 95 79 96 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 97 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 84 80 85 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 90 79 91 / 0 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page