519
FXUS64 KBRO 231927
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY.
- THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE EXACT
TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TONIGHT: DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
STATE, PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATE A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE, WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.9 INCHES. DESPITE THIS MORNING’S
CONVECTION STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DESTABILIZATION ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. IN
COMBINATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN
HANDLING THIS SETUP THE BEST, BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT -
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG, 0-6KM WIND SHEAR AROUND
35-40 KNOTS, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM, AND PWATS
UPWARDS OF 1.9-2 INCHES - MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ATTEMPT TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
GULF. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH RAIN RATES OF 2-2.5”/HR. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AS THE SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLANS BY SUNDAY,
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM AROUND 20-50%, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF US-281. THE REST OF THE WEEK,
INCLUDING MEMORIAL DAY, REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
AMONG GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN US. HOWEVER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT AND
INSTABILITY.ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY, BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN ANY
CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
AT THE AIRPORTS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN AMENDMENTS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE HIGHEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES,
AROUND 40-70%. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, STRONG WINDS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 90 75 89 / 40 50 20 30
HARLINGEN 73 89 71 88 / 30 40 10 30
MCALLEN 75 90 74 90 / 30 30 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 90 72 90 / 20 20 30 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 84 78 83 / 40 40 20 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 75 87 / 30 40 20 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355-
451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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