593
FXUS64 KBRO 240359
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1059 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE FORECAST HAS SHIFTED DRIER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED TO 10-20%.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE RECENT ACTIVITY MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES HAVE WORKED TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE COME IN SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY, A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION, AND LOWER PWAT
VALUES. RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY ARE NOW LIMITED TO AROUND 10-20% AND
PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ON CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 10-15% MONDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND <10% FURTHER INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS, BRINGING STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THOUGH A <10% PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT BRO AND HRL OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER
SUNRISE, THOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MAY WARRANT BRIEF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 90 75 89 / 40 50 20 30
HARLINGEN 73 89 71 88 / 30 40 10 30
MCALLEN 75 90 74 90 / 30 30 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 90 72 90 / 20 20 30 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 84 78 83 / 40 40 20 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 75 87 / 30 40 20 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60
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