544
FXUS64 KBRO 241815
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TO
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE STABLE. WITH THAT SAID SPC STILL HAS US UNDER A GENERAL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES RANGE FROM 10 TO 25% TODAY WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES IN KENEDY, WILLACY, CAMERON, AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. WHILE
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME, SOME CAMS DO
HAVE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. MAIN THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. PWAT VALUES ON THE THIS MORNINGS
BRO SOUNDING WERE AT 1.91 INCHES, STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MONDAY RAIN
CHANCES FALL TO 15% OR LESS.
TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN RETURN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ZAPATA, JIM
HOGG, BROOKS, WILLACY, STAR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WE STILL WILL SEE AND INCREASED CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
KENEDY, WILLACY, BROOKS, CAMERON, HIDALGO, AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES.
WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE WILL
BE A LOW CHANCE SEA BREEZE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS WEEK WITH ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS (EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COAST) WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE AREA BEACHES
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HRL WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF FORECAST. IF ANY ACTIVITY MOVES OVER THE AIRPORTS BRIEF
LOWERED VISIBILITY, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THE WATERS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THIS WEEK. COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
WITH 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 89 76 91 / 10 20 0 10
HARLINGEN 71 88 72 91 / 10 10 0 20
MCALLEN 73 90 75 92 / 10 10 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 91 73 92 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 83 79 85 / 10 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 86 75 89 / 10 10 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68
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