860
FXUS64 KBRO 250459
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA MONDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 10% WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER MEXICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF
THE AREA, WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE LIKELY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHICH COULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL, SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AS THEY
APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ZAPATA COUNTY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CAN’T
BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS AROUND,
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 75 89 76 / 20 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 89 71 89 72 / 20 10 10 0
MCALLEN 91 73 91 75 / 20 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 71 91 74 / 10 20 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 78 83 79 / 10 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 75 87 76 / 10 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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