387
FXUS64 KBRO 262151 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
451 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 402 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS EXTENDED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND MIDDLE RGV, FEATURING A
PRIMARY RISK OF SCATTERED DAMAGING (58+ MPH) WINDS AND LARGE TO
VERY LARGE (1 TO 2+ INCH) HAIL.
* THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
* LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THIS IS AN UPDATED AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION TO NOTIFY THAT SPC
UPDATED THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD, TO
INCLUDE MORE OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND UPPER/MIDDLE RGV.
SPECIFICALLY, THE SLIGHT RISK'S EASTERN EDGE NOW REACHES AS FAR
EAST AS THE WESTERN HALF OF BROOKS COUNTY AND THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF HIDALGO COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT, PERHAPS AROUND 10 OR 11 PM, AT THE EARLIEST,
BEGINNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS, ALONG/NEAR THE RIO GRANDE,
OF THE UPPER RGV AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE PRIMARY RISKS INCLUDE
A 15-29% PROBABILITY (WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY POINT) OF SCATTERED
DAMAGING (58+ MPH) WIND FOR THE ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK ZONE AS WELL
AS SCATTERED LARGE (1-2+ INCH) HAIL AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN
HALF OF JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE SLIGHT
RISK'S EASTERN FRINGE REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AND ISOLATED
LARGE (1+ INCH) HAIL AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES.
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT... ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AN EASTWARD-MOVING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY FOSTERED
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS TODAY, WITH
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY PLACED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHWARD, OVER INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE SIERRA
MADRE. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEPARTING WEAKER IMPULSE, WHICH
BROUGHT RAIN TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME SUNSHINE HAS
MANAGED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT, PARTICULARLY FURTHER
WEST, AND HAS RE-ELEVATED SBCAPE TO AT LEAST 3,500-4,000 J/KG
WITH 6.5 C/KM LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SUPPORTING THE WIND THREAT)
AS WELL AS 3,000-4,4000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH 6.5-7.0 MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, HIGHEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER RGV, WESTERN NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS (SUPPORTING THE HAIL
THREAT). ADDITIONALLY, BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 KT NEAR THE
COAST TO AS HIGH AS 40-45 KT ALONG/WEST OF US-281, LENDING TO THE
OVERALL HIGHER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH LATER
TONIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
CWA, STRONG TO SCATTERED ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK, MENTIONED IN THE UPDATE SECTION
ABOVE, PRODUCING A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL, ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF US-281. A NEAR-SURFACE CAPPING
INVERSION AND MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD, HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER,
STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THAT SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND COLD POOLING COULD CAUSE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE AND
FORM A SQUALL LINE OVER PORTIONS, OR ALL, OF THE REGION AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF AMPLE GULF SURFACE MOISTURE AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT, ALONG WITH CONTINUED EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL AND
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 50%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SMALL PORTION OF THE
WESTERN RANCHLANDS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE ATMOSPHERE'S ABILITY TO RECOVER
FROM ONGOING MORNING SHOWER AND RAIN ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, CAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MEXICAN SIERRA MADRES LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD REACH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IF THESE STORMS HAPPEN
TO MAKE IT TO OUR AREA, THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING), BUT
SOME MODERATE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THESE STORMS MAY BRING. FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR ARROYOS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
TOMORROW THE CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER DECREASE, BUT DUE TO THE
OVERALL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE MID-MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG. THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TOMORROW,
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-69C.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT, AS THE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SUBSIDES AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM THE
LOWER 90S TO THE UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HEAT RISK
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS MORE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND EVEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD REACH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE, BUT COULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION AND BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE
HUMIDITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORT, WITH OVERCAST CEILINGS
THAT MAY BECOME SCATTERED OR BROKEN AT TIMES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02-07Z AND THERE MAY BE SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT BRO AND HRL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND STAY
FAVORABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 90 78 92 / 10 30 10 20
HARLINGEN 77 91 75 92 / 20 40 10 20
MCALLEN 78 93 77 94 / 30 30 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 75 94 / 40 20 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 80 85 / 10 30 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 89 78 90 / 20 30 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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