208
FXUS64 KBRO 301135 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
* DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH INCREASING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ELEVATING A MAINLY
MINOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OVER THE WEEKEND TO A MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) NEXT MONDAY.
* ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN, BRINGING AT LEAST A
LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING TO
AS MUCH A MEDIUM (50-60%) CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT TUESDAY.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SUBSIDENCE OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, STEADILY AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TEMPERATURES, MAXIMIZING IN THE MID/UPPER 90S OVER THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER RGV WHILE LOW/MID 90S CONTINUE ELSEWHERE, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST A MINOR HEAT RISK THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE RGV AND COASTAL
COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE A MODERATE RISK. MEANWHILE, WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WEAK DISTURBANCES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAINTAIN A STEADY PLUME OF DEEP AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION VIA SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WINDS, PRIMARILY PICKING UP SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF
BUILDING MOISTURE CONTENT, MODERATE HEAT RISKS GRADUALLY EXPAND
TO COVER MORE OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEXT MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 F CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER SET-UP SHIFTS A BIT IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN US, POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS
THE COASTAL DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, TROUGHING ALOFT SLOWLY
MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO TEXAS, THUS GRADUALLY LOWERING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND EASING ON SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS, FACTORED IN WITH
MOISTURE POOLING SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SHOULD FOSTER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PULSING WESTWARD INTO
THE CWA, BRINGING AT LEAST A LOW (15-30%) DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN BY
POSSIBLY NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE NEXT TUESDAY. A NIGHTLY LOW (15-30%) CHANCE
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/EAST OF US-281. CLOUD COVERAGE
SHOULD HELP TO KNOCK DOWN BOTH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
IFR VISIBILITIES AT HRL ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY AT BRO AND MFE, AND RETURN AT HRL BY MID MORNING. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OCCURRING AT MFE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE (2-5 FT) SEAS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CHANCES OF RAIN FROM ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO
PICK UP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM
(40-50%) CHANCE NEXT TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 93 77 92 79 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 73 92 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 76 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 85 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 77 90 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...60-BE
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