052
FXUS64 KBRO 090327
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1027 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. MODERATE HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO WARMER AND
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE (PWATS AROUND 2"), RAIN
CHANCES WILL STAY LOW (10% OR LESS) THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED
COASTAL AND SEA BREEZE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE. AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO DEEP S TX AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TO LOW (10-20%) FRIDAY, AND LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AROUND HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REACH, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES.
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS WORKWEEK WILL BE HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO
110 DEGREES WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AT LOCAL BEACHES, A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TUESDAY.
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
INCLUDING INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE AS SWELL PERIODS INCREASE AND THE APPROACH OF A NEW
MOON RAISES TIDES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS BUILD.
A FEW LINGERING GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT HRL AND BRO ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE SUNSET. VFR RETURNS AROUND SUNRISE, WITH WINDS INCREASING
LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH LOW CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PERSIST, WITH SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 81 92 81 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 91 78 92 77 / 10 10 0 10
MCALLEN 93 80 95 79 / 20 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 79 96 77 / 20 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 83 87 83 / 10 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 81 90 81 / 10 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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