297
FXUS64 KBRO 100238
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
938 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 930 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
* GULF MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY, SUPPORTING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN WARMER AND GENERALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM
100 TO 110 DEGREES WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE (PWATS AROUND 2"), RAIN CHANCES WILL
STAY LOW (10% OR LESS) THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED COASTAL AND
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF LATE THIS WEEK ADVECTS TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO DEEP S TX AND SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO LOW (10-20%) FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST AND RGV, AND
GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY (30-50%). THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AROUND TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
UPDATES.
AT LOCAL BEACHES, A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS INCLUDING INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK AND COASTAL RUNUP
ARE POSSIBLE AS SWELL PERIODS INCREASE AND TIDES INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A NEW MOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE CYCLE. MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES, BUT ONLY MENTIONED IN TAFS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (MFE). SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PERSIST,
WITH SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INTERMITTENT SCEC
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ONWARDS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
FLOW. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW - BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED
OUT - THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY ONWARDS, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND
SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT INTO THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED SEAS MAY NECESSITATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 93 81 93 81 / 0 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 93 77 93 78 / 0 10 10 10
MCALLEN 96 79 95 80 / 0 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 77 96 77 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 83 88 83 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 81 91 81 / 0 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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