280
FXUS64 KBRO 121746
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
* LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FOR STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.
* MODERATE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INCREASE
TO HIGH (70-80%) MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS UNDER A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAYS.
* HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW. SWIMMING AT AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE UNSAFE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN AS A TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, CREATING UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGINS TO REACH THE
AREA. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BUT REMAIN SCATTERED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FAIRLY LOW (20 TO 30%) AND WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, BUT INCREASE TO AROUND 50 TO 70%
TOMORROW MORNING, AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND (WITH LOWER
CHANCES OVERNIGHT).
IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN
0.5 TO 1 INCH OVER THE WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WITH THIS SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 2 TO 2.5 INCHES. BECAUSE THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE SO
MOIST, ANY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS AND SOME WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR AREAS THAT HAPPEN TO RECEIVE
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LINGER JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA.
THIS, ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF TROPICAL AIR, WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY
LONGER DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE STALLED FRONT AND THE
SURFACE LOW. IN FACT, THE INTERACTION OF THE UNSETTLED TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES (BETWEEN 70 TO 80%) FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY BE MORE PRONE TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AS THE GROUND
WILL ALREADY BE SATURATED. BY MID-WEEK, MOST AREAS IN DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS SHOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WHICH INCLUDES
THE WEEKEND TOTALS. IN SOME EXTREME LOCALIZED CASES, AN AREA OR TWO
COULD SEE UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY IF THEY
RECEIVE MULTIPLE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
AND NUISANCE FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS THAT
RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
THOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL A LOW (10%)
CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS EXTENDED THE RISK FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE UP TO THE TEXAS COAST. WHILE GULF WATER REMAINS
WARM, ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS OVERALL UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
WHICH IS KEEPING CHANCES LOW. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED
THIS NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS GULF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS
OFFSHORE WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK REMAINS A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH SOME AREAS IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES REACHING A
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE OVERALL SEASONAL, BUT REALLY HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT
INDICES ELEVATED. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BY NEXT THURSDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A
HOST OF BEACH HAZARDS. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ALONG WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS. AN ONGOING MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INCREASES TO
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TOMORROW MORNING AS SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASES AND THE SEAS BECOME MORE DISTURBED. IT WILL NOT BE SAFE
TO SWIM AT THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH RUN-UP IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A CHANCE OF POTENTIAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW AS WINDS INCREASE ON
THE BAY AND OFFSHORE, ALSO WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
INTERMITTENT SCEC IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY FOR THE OUTER GULF WATERS
DUE TO ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 90 81 92 / 40 70 20 50
HARLINGEN 77 90 78 91 / 20 70 20 60
MCALLEN 79 92 79 93 / 10 80 20 60
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 93 77 94 / 0 70 20 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 86 83 87 / 30 60 40 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 88 80 90 / 30 60 20 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page