074
FXUS64 KBRO 220353
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1053 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS, BREEZY AT TIMES, AND SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OF 4) ON MONDAY
AND A MODERATE HEAT RISK ON TUESDAY BECOME MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF
4) TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
HEAT RISKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL
AND INLAND PORTIONS (EXCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS) OF CAMERON,
WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 111 F.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS LINGER INTO MONDAY, IMPROVING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT (PEAKING AS HIGH AS 597+ DAM ON
TUESDAY), STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF,
FOLLOWED BY THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT APPROACHING TROUGHS LEAVES
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND; HIGHS CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE IN THE MID/UPPER
90S IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT, ASIDE FROM
LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADS TO BREEZY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON MONDAY (GUSTING TO AROUND 25-35 MPH) AND TUESDAY (GUSTING
TO NEAR 20-30 MPH); THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MOSTLY
MODERATE HEAT RISKS, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES ON MONDAY, THROUGH TUESDAY. A SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL
AND INLAND PORTIONS (EXCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS) OF CAMERON,
WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN HIDALGO
AND STARR COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 111 F, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 PM TO 7 PM MONDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY
EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 111 F DEGREES. IF SPENDING
TIME OUTSIDE TODAY, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT.
YOUNG CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES.
FOLLOWING, WINDS EASE JUST A BIT INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF
THE WEEK, REDUCING HEAT INDICES TO 100-108 F WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN MINOR HEAT RISKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND
MODERATE HEAT RISKS ACROSS THE RGV. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ENHANCE MOISTURE CONTENT AND ESCALATE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 105 TO 110 F WITH MODERATE HEAT HEAT RISKS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
25-30 KNOTS) AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING, REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF
SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBRO AND KHRL
TONIGHT, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AT KBRO, BECOMING MOSTLY
SCATTERED BY THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS RESUME
MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS TODAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCEC) REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOSTLY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (5-
7 FEET) SEAS PERSIST. WINDS EASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING, WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
(SCEC) POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS (3-5 FEET) RESUME TUESDAY BEFORE ENHANCING
ENHANCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SCEC AND/OR SCA POSSIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS MAINTAIN AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 94 82 94 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 79 95 79 94 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 81 96 80 95 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 97 78 96 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 82 88 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 93 81 92 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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