942
FXUS64 KBRO 270531 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
* MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK; THERE COULD BE A LOW, NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
* PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EACH DAY.
* BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-
25 MPH, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH; WINDS COULD GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
AT TIMES, THROUGH MONDAY.
* THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-
DAY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* LIFE-THREATENING RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MAINLY RAIN-FREE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A 591-594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT RIDGE WILL BE THE DRIVER OF OUR DRY
AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WEEK, DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL SIT ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HEAT DOME AS IT LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
HEATWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH THE HEAT RIDGE
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE SPARRED FROM THE
BRUNT OF THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE COULD
BRING A LOW, YET NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
(SHOWERS AND STORMS) EACH DAY OR NEARLY EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SFC WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-
25 MPH COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH NEARLY EACH DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
INSTANCE OR TWO WHERE WINDS GUST OVER 40 MPH THROUGH MONDAY.
AS HIGHLIGHTED EARLIER, SINCE THE HEAT RIDGE/DOME WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST TO NEAR 100F
DEGREES FAR WEST/INLAND EACH DAY. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EACH
NIGHT. DESPITE THESE SEASONABLE LEVEL TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING
BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING AFTER
SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
COULD RESULT IN DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND MAYBE THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OR
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4-6 FEET (SCEC CONDITIONS) EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SEAS TO
AT TIMES SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW, NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF STREAMER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 82 94 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 96 79 96 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 81 98 80 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 100 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 88 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 92 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE
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