128
FXUS64 KBRO 060329
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1029 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100-110 F CONTINUE.
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS (GUSTS TO 25-30+ MPH) RETURN LATER IN THE
WEEK, BUILDING MOISTURE CONTENT AND INCREASING HEAT RISKS FROM
MINOR AND MODERATE (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4) TO MAINLY MODERATE BY
THURSDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE INCREASE
LATER IN THE WEEK TO AS MUCH AS POSSIBLY A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%)
CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PREVAILS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN AND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, REMAINING MOSTLY DRY,
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY
CONDITIONS; HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AT THE COAST, UPPER 90S INLAND AND
LOWER 100S ACROSS THE UPPER RGV AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RGV
CONTINUE ALONG WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE,
GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 100-110 F ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH HEAT RISKS RANGING FROM MOSTLY MINOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO MODERATE OVER THE RGV THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOWER 80S ALONG/NEAR THE
COAST PERSIST.
MEANWHILE, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT EXPANDING
ACROSS MEXICO AND OUR REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK,
FURTHER DEEPENING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN BREEZIER ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
GUSTING TO 25-30+ MPH, ADVECTING A PLUME OF DEEP/TROPICAL GULF
MOISTURE INLAND AND RISING PWAT VALUES TO 2.0+ IN., POTENTIALLY BY
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINATION IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN MAINLY
MODERATE HEAT RISKS BY THURSDAY AS WELL AS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE FROM A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE ON THURSDAY TO AS MUCH AS A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND AS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS. LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN
COULD LINGER INTO NEXT MONDAY. DUE TO ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
CONTENT, THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE DEEPEST OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, AS MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS BUILD, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO EASE OFF A FEW
DEGREES BY THURSDAY, LEADING TO MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WHILE MID
80S CONTINUE AT THE COAST.
A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, BECOME GENTLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING BACK
UP TO SIMILAR SPEEDS (AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED) BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE, FRESH AT TIMES, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE (1-3 FT) SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH, WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS, WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD AS A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN, BUILDING SEAS TO MODERATE (2-4
FT). MOISTURE ARRIVING TO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS COULD
BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND AGAIN BY THURSDAY, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 95 79 95 / 0 10 0 10
HARLINGEN 77 97 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 79 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 78 93 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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