285
FXUS64 KBRO 070524 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100-110 F CONTINUE.
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS (GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH) RETURN LATER IN THE
WEEK, BUILDING MOISTURE CONTENT AND INCREASING HEAT RISKS FROM
MINOR AND MODERATE (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4) TO MAINLY MODERATE BY
FRIDAY.
- DAILY LOW (15-20%) CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE COULD INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
INFLUENCE FROM BEING ON THE EDGE OF BOTH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN GULF,
RESPECTIVELY, COMBINED WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE CONTENT, YET WEAKER ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, LEAVE
FOR A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THOUGH, FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN
EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY RESIDING ALONG
AND EAST OF US-281/I-69 C.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN, CAUSING
LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH, AMPLIFYING MOISTURE ADVECTION INLAND OFF OF A PLUME OF
DEEP AND TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE WESTERN GULF; THE 18Z DETERMINISTIC GFS INDICATES PWAT VALUES
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND TO
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2.0-2.4 IN. BY SATURDAY. GIVEN SLIGHT
DEEPENING OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
CONTENT, CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, AT MOST A 20-30%
CHANCE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LATER HALF
OF THIS WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF RAIN
APPEAR TO FALL ON FRIDAY, BUT DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF RAIN COULD BEGIN TO
WANE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS FROM THE WESTERN US TO THE
PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EASE SLIGHTLY AS CLOUDS
BUILD, DECREASING BY A FEW DEGREES FROM MAINLY UPPER 90S INLAND
(LOWER 100S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS) TO MID/UPPER
90S BY THURSDAY, WHILE HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE AROUND
100-110 F. FACTORING IN INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY, MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISKS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ESCALATE TO MOSTLY
MODERATE BY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S PREVAIL ALONG/NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOWER 80S
ALONG/NEAR THE COAST PERSIST.
A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES GENTLE TO MODERATE, FRESH
AT TIMES, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (1-3 FT) SEAS
TO MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WITH MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS BY WEDNESDAY,
WHEN ONGOING PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE LIKELY. A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INCREASES TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY LOWERING CHANCES SATURDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 80 94 79 / 20 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 96 76 96 76 / 20 10 20 0
MCALLEN 99 79 99 78 / 10 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 100 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 81 / 10 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 92 78 / 10 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...63-KC
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