924
FXUS64 KBRO 080356
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1056 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
* HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF
4) HEAT RISK EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE VALLEY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100
AND 110 DEGREES EACH DAY.
* DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW (GENERALLY UNDER 20
PERCENT) THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE INCREASING (TO NEAR 30 TO 40
PERCENT) FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* THERE IS GENERALLY A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
LIKELY INCREASING TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE 500MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT WEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO LATE THIS WEEK, BEFORE WORKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW WEAKER PRESSURE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO SETTLE ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GENERALLY
MAINTAINING ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
CURRENTLY NEAR 30 TO 40 PERCENT, WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ALONG THE COAST INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. HAVE HEAVILY TWEAKED NBM
POP GRIDS INTO DAY 5 TO BE A BIT MORE REALISTIC WITH COVERAGE
INTO SATURDAY AND LEAN INTO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE TIMING.
MID SUMMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS CONTINUE, WITH A COOLER BEACH AND WARMER BRUSH COUNTRY.
EXPECT A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH BRIEF RELIEF WHERE CLOUDS, SHOWERS, OR
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP.
LONG PERIOD SWELL INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
OFFSHORE, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BUILD
THIS WEEKEND AS WE NEAR THE NEW MOON, WHICH MAY NARROW ALREADY
NARROW BEACHES AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND RETURNING
MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS
FROM EAST TO WEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE GULF. EXPECT AN AFTERNOON CHOP EACH DAY
ON THE BAY, WITH GULF SEAS OF GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET, GRADUALLY
BUILDING TOWARDS 3 TO 4 FEET LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 94 79 93 / 0 10 10 20
HARLINGEN 77 96 75 94 / 0 10 10 20
MCALLEN 79 99 78 97 / 0 20 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 87 / 0 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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