045
FXUS64 KBRO 092336 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT
INCREASE TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FROM POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN INTO TOMORROW
AND A FEW AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OR MORE, MOST LIKELY
ALONG/EAST OF US-281/I-69 E.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100-105 F AND MINOR HEAT RISKS
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) THIS AFTERNOON WARM AND ESCALATE TO 105-110 F
WITH A MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TOMORROW INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
AN INFLUX OF DEEP AND TROPICAL MOISTURE VIA SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH, BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, POSSIBLY NUMEROUS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTION
FROM WEAK FORCING, FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS
MEDIUM AT BEST AND IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. HOWEVER, OUR LATEST
FORECAST HOLDS A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY MOVING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE RGV THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM THE INITIAL ONSLAUGHT OF
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED MOISTURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE. AS PWAT VALUES OF 2.0+ IN. SPREAD TO
MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69 E
INCREASES TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE AND EXPANDS WESTWARD
TO THE I-69 C/US-281 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
GIVEN SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. BY SATURDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT NEARLY HALF OF
LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF US-281 TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.20-0.30 OF
AN INCH OF RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING, MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS
ALONG/NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RGV, WHERE
WE ANTICIPATE GENERALLY BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER REDUCING DIURNAL INSTABILITY JUST A BIT, HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING OR TRAINING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED 1-3+ INCHES, MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE AREAS MENTIONED, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN PWAT VALUES COULD PEAK AS HIGH AS 2.75 IN.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE GULF IS LIKELY TO CUT DOWN ON CHANCES OF
RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, DECREASING TO A 15-20%
CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. YET, PULSES OF DEEP MOIST
AIR STREAMING IN OFF THE GULF COULD STILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
COULD RETURN A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER HOLDS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S
TODAY AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT WARMS
AND ESCALATES AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM AROUND 100-105 F WITH A
MINOR HEAT RISK TODAY TO NEAR 105-110 F WITH MAINLY OR ALL
MODERATE HEAT RISKS TOMORROW INTO NEXT TUESDAY. FOLLOWING, DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE
HEAT RISKS AS AFTERNOON INDICES PEAK CLOSE TO 100-110 F.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT MAY BE INTERMITTENTLY PLAGUED WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MAY LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS AHEAD OF SUNRISE FRIDAY.
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA ARE DIMINISHING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z, BUT
MAINTAINED VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEAR TERM. RAIN CHANCES ARE NON-
ZERO PAST 06Z AND INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
CYCLE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE, MAINTAINED PROB30S DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT PASS OVER AN AIRFIELD
CAN BRING HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY, LOW CEILINGS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-5
FT) SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL BRIEF
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. CHANCES OF RAIN
INCISE TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE. LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
NEXT MONDAY AND MAY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 92 81 94 / 40 50 10 10
HARLINGEN 75 93 78 95 / 30 60 10 20
MCALLEN 78 96 81 98 / 10 50 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 96 79 99 / 10 50 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 82 88 / 50 50 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 80 92 / 40 50 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...69-HK
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