023
FXUS64 KBRO 100401
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1101 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES TODAY FROM POSSIBLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN. A FEW AREAS
MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OR MORE, MOST LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF
US-281/I-69 E.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 F ESCALATE TO 105-110 F
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY, RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 2.0
TO 2.3 INCHES, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST, SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SHOULD ACTIVITY
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND NE MEXICO OVERNIGHT, ACTIVITY WOULD THEN
SPREAD INLAND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE RGV AND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 60% FRIDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20 TO 50% SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
OUT.
DESPITE PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTION, THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. AS A RESULT, LOCALIZED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
(1-HOUR FFG 2-3+ INCHES), ANY FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED.
CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF FRIDAY'S CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE RANGES FROM WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONFINED NEAR THE
COAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS THAN
THEIR OVERALL COVERAGE; OPTED TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS ACROSS THE
CWA.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS, SUPPRESSING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AND SHIFTING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION. PERSISTENT
GULF MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EAST OF US-281, WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 10-30% RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES COME THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF A
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST, IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S (UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST). PERSISTENT GULF HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, AS HIGH AS 110 THIS WEEKEND, AND
WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. RELIEF FROM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. AT
LOCAL BEACHES, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL, BUT MAY BE INTERMITTENTLY PLAGUED WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MAY LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS AHEAD OF SUNRISE FRIDAY.
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA ARE DIMINISHING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z, BUT
MAINTAINED VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEAR TERM. RAIN CHANCES ARE NON-
ZERO PAST 06Z AND INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
CYCLE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE, MAINTAINED PROB30S DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT PASS OVER AN AIRFIELD
CAN BRING HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY, LOW CEILINGS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS PERSISTS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND ELEVATED
SEAS. MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) FRIDAY GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH
DAY INTO THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEKEND, SEAS BUILD TO MODERATE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING SWELLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 78 92 81 / 40 40 50 10
HARLINGEN 93 75 93 78 / 30 30 60 10
MCALLEN 96 78 96 81 / 40 10 50 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 76 96 79 / 30 10 50 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 87 82 / 40 50 50 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 77 90 80 / 40 40 50 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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