839
FXUS64 KBRO 110437
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND,
SOME LOCALLY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS,
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 100-110 DEGREES.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING
INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.12 INCHES. THE COMBINATION
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO FADE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL, SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END SUNDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN 90S.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF CYCLE, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME.
WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15
KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KTS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN
THE AFTERNOON. A LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCE (20-40%) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES FADE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 80 94 80 / 50 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 93 77 95 77 / 50 0 10 0
MCALLEN 95 80 98 79 / 60 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 78 98 78 / 40 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 88 81 / 60 20 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 92 79 / 60 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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