549
FXUS64 KBRO 111707 AAC
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND,
SOME LOCALLY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS,
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 100-110 DEGREES.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING
INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.12 INCHES. THE COMBINATION
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO FADE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SLOWER MOVING CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL, SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END SUNDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN 90S.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 13-17 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS,
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY,
BECOMING LIGHT AND GENTLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR TAFS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAFS AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SHRA/TS THIS AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS, REDUCED VISIBILITY OR LOWER CEILINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN
THE AFTERNOON. A LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCE (20-40%) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES FADE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 94 80 94 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 77 94 77 95 / 0 10 10 20
MCALLEN 79 98 79 98 / 0 10 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 98 77 99 / 10 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 10 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 79 92 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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