892
FXUS64 KBRO 190318
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1018 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAINTAINS ABOVE AVERAGE, NEAR
RECORD, HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105-110 F, OR WARMER, AND MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEAT RISKS (LEVELS 2/4 AND 3/4).
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
HIDALGO COUNTY AS WELL AS THE COASTAL AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES (EXCLUDING THE BARRIER
ISLANDS) FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY AS HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM
AROUND 108 TO 111 F FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, EXCEPTING THE COASTAL AND ISLAND AREAS, FROM 1 PM
TO 8 PM SUNDAY.
- ADDITIONAL SPSS FOR HEAT, RFDS FOR FIRE RISKS AND A HEAT
ADVISORY, OR TWO, REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURES ALOFT MAINTAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND; A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER COASTAL TEXAS RETREATS
WESTWARD TO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE ANOTHER BUILDS AND SHIFTS EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, FURTHER BUILDING TO NEAR 597 DAM AND SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INLAND, PEAKING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, DECREASING FROM 25-30+ MPH ON SUNDAY TO
20-25+ MPH BY MONDAY. YET, AT THE SAME TIME, INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DRIER THAN
AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT.
THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THESE FACTORS IS LIKELY TO SOAR AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 105-110 F, OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER, AS WELL
AS BRING MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT RISKS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHILE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POPULATED
REGIONS OF THE RGV EXPERIENCE A MAJOR HEAT RISK. ANOTHER SPS IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM ON SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN HIDALGO AS WELL AS
THE COASTAL AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY
COUNTIES (EXCEPT FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS) AS HEAT INDICES PEAK
AROUND 108-111 F FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPSS AND A HEAT
ADVISORY, OR TWO, REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, BREEZY
WINDS AND NORMAL TO DRY FUELS CREATE THE RISK OF SPREADING ANY FIRES
THAT DEVELOP. THIS HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A RFD FOR MOST AREAS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY, EXCEPTING THE COASTAL AND ISLAND
AREAS. ADDITIONAL RFDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ACTUAL FORECAST MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE
AROUND 1 TO 5 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH MAINLY WIDESPREAD
LOW/MID 100S (100-106 F) ACROSS INLAND AREAS, PERHAPS HITTING UPPER
100S (107+ F) IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LAGUNA MADRE TO
HIT THE CENTURY MARK BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE
ENHANCES EVEN FURTHER. IN GENERAL, FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO TIE AND POTENTIALLY EXCEED RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15-19 KNOTS,
GUSTING TO NEAR 25-27 KNOTS AT KMFE AND KHRL, ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOURS LEADING UP TO SUNSET THIS EVENING,
DROPPING TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 23 KNOTS IN
THE HOURS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK BACK UP AT ALL TAF SITES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS AND
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE (1-3 FT) SEAS BY NEXT TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 96 79 97 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 103 77 105 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 105 76 106 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 80 88 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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