943
FXUS64 KBRO 231812
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
112 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ZAPATA AND STARR
COUNTIES, WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED 111 DEGREES IS
CONDITIONS STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR HEAT IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JIM HOGG, BROOKS, AND KENEDY
COUNTIES WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 111 DEGREES.
- ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS (EXCEPTING COASTAL AREAS) IS IN A MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK TODAY AND A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
HEAT RISK TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, ALONG WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
- AFTER TODAY'S RAIN CHANCES, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE HOT AND
PRECIPITATION FREE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE SAME MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT IS WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA'S CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS ALSO PUSHING A
WAVE OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE COME ASHORE DUE TO AN ONGOING MESOSCALE
CONVECTION SYSTEM OVER THE GULF, AND MORE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, AND A
50-80% CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN RANCHLANDS TONIGHT,
WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
(EXCEPTING THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY) UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS COULD SEE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
RANCHLANDS SHOULD SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION, AND MUCH OF THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BULK
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INLAND. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE RAIN RECEIVED IS
EXPECTED TO BE BENEFICIAL.
IN ADDITION, ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED
CLUSTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION
THAT MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE GULF, AND THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THESE CLUSTERS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNBURSTS. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
CONVECTION PUSHES OFF TO THE WEST. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW TOMORROW AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
HEAT IS ALSO A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA AND
STARR COUNTIES TODAY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT. HEAT INDICES COULD
EXCEED 111 DEGREES TODAY IN THESE AREAS, BUT THIS THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL ON CLOUD COVER. IF THESE COUNTIES STAY RELATIVELY CLEAR
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL BE MET. HOWEVER, ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE REGION COULD PUSH
CLOUD TOPS FURTHER WEST, WHICH COULD HELP COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES AND KEEP THESE AREAS OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF IT
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO CIRRUS
COVER, THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER A MAJOR (LEVEL 3
OF 4) HEAT RISK TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR JIM HOGG, BROOKS,
AND KENEDY COUNTIES, AS HEAT INDICES IN THESE COUNTIES MAY
ALSO APPROACH BUT NOT REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DUE TO ONGOING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER GULF, THE HEAT WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BUT URBAN AREAS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY COULD SEE MAJOR HEAT RISK. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE SOME AREAS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY COULD EVEN SEE EXTREME HEAT RISK, WITH ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED.
THOUGH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FOR TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS WELL
TO THE NORTH, THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL BEACH HAZARDS DUE TO
ELEVATED SWELL. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURF IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THAT BEGINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS CONVECTION MAKES ITS WAY ONSHORE FROM THE GULF. THIS
COULD TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
OVER THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY AT MFE) IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE GULF AND
COMES ASHORE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THAT COULD FURTHER DETERIORATE
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND AND
STAY OVERALL FAVORABLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTERMITTENT SCEC OVER THE BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 96 80 96 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 78 98 77 98 / 30 0 0 0
MCALLEN 81 101 79 102 / 60 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 101 77 101 / 90 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 79 93 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248-252.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page