802
FXUS64 KBRO 011834
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
134 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR INLAND KENEDY COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM
SATURDAY FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO 116. AN SPS IS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR HEAT INDICES
TO 111.
- HOT, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SPS AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH "FEELS LIKE" TEMPS BETWEEN
105-115 AND A MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
- LOW CHANCE (20% OR LESS) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY WEST OF US281. OTHERWISE, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
PERSIST.
- BORDERLINE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR
(AND POCKETS OF EXTREME) RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR INLAND KENEDY
COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE TO 105-115, HIGHEST ALONG I-69E
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER RGV. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BREAK
RECORD "HIGH MINIMUM" TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WITH
LOWS NEAR 80, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE MCALLEN MFE CLIMATE SITE WILL BE TESTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSLATING WESTWARD OVER THE DESERT SW ALLOWS
MOISTURE TO RETURN TODAY AND TOMORROW, INCREASING PWATS TO 2-2.2
INCHES. A WEAK FRONT STALLING OVER CENTRAL TX WILL BRING A LOW (20%
OR LESS) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED, BUT LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE WEST OF US281. MOST
PLACES THAT SEE RAINFALL SHOULD EXPECT A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD NEXT WEEK, SUPPRESSING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY ONWARD. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, LOW CHANCE POPS
RETURN NEAR THE COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING PARKS NEAR DEEP S TX.
THE ENHANCED THERMAL GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-25
MPH TO CONTINUE EACH DAY. MOISTURE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ABOVE LEVELS OF CONCERN
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER. EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH OF 20-
45% PAIRED WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY RAISE CONCERNS OF FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND RGV.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HOT TEMPERATURES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS EACH DAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE WINDS REACH LOW END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A STALLING FRONT OVER CENTRAL TX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 99 79 98 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 102 76 102 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 81 105 80 105 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 104 79 105 / 0 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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