014
FXUS64 KBRO 030351
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1051 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F, POTENTIALLY HIGHER, ARE EXPECTED WITH A
MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
- LOW (15 PERCENT OR LESS) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
RECORD HEAT COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE, ROAMING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, AND A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KICK UP MULTIPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS. WITH THE EXCITEMENT
OVER, WE NOW RETURN TO THE PREVIOUSLY MESSAGED HEAT THREAT, WITH A
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK
EXPECTED EVERY DAY OF THE FORECAST AND LITTLE TO NO RELIEF EACH
NIGHT.
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE ALLOWING WEAKER PRESSURE
TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT ALSO ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE
REMAINS A LOW (LESS THAN 10 TO 20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST
HEAT INDICES OCCURRING BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AS IT INCREASES
HUMIDITY FROM EAST TO WEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY WORKING
THROUGH MFE, BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH WITHIN THE HOUR.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH QUICK THIS EVENING AND RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET
OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 97 81 97 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 76 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 103 81 103 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 79 103 / 50 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 81 89 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 96 79 96 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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