610
FXUS64 KBRO 061127 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OF 4) ON THURSDAY
BECOME MINOR (1 OF 4) TO MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CLOUDS AND LOW TO MEDIUM (15-40%) AFTERNOON CHANCES OF RAIN
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY FOR HEAT INDICES OF AT LEAST
108-111 F AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND KENEDY AND
WILLACY COUNTIES.
- CHANCES OF RAIN DIMINISH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN, DETERIORATING HEAT RISKS BACK TO
MAINLY MAJOR WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) FROM THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB BACK TO
AT LEAST 108-111 F.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
A 594+ DAM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE 4 CORNERS
AND SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, GRADUALLY
BUILDING AND PEAKING AROUND 597+ DAM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANOTHER SCORCHING HOT DAY ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY (AHEAD OF ANY POTENTIAL AFTERNOON CLOUDS/RAIN) WITH
WIDESPREAD INLAND AIR TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER/MID 100S
ALONG/WEST OF I-69 E, WHILE INLAND/COASTAL AREAS FURTHER EAST PEAK
INTO THE UPPER 90S AS WELL AS MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST. AS HAS BEEN THE RECURRING PATTERN FOR THIS ONGOING WEATHER
SETUP, A SPS IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ALL INLAND AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST
108-111 F. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR INLAND
PORTIONS OF KENEDY AND WILLACY COUNTIES, FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES
OF 111-113 F.
MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH'S RIDGE LEADS TO A SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENSION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
THE MIDWEST, LOWERING HEIGHTS JUST A BIT AS WELL AS BUILDING CLOUD
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE CONTENT, RESULTING IN A DAILY CHANCE OF
RAIN ALONG THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS A BIT INCOHESIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS ON THURSDAY AND THE
LOWER/MIDDLE RGV ON FRIDAY, WHERE CHANCES INCREASE TO A 20-30% ON
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ALONG/EAST
OF US-281 ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST ALONG/EAST OF I-69 E.
YET, AGAIN, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE A FAIR AMOUNT ON OVERALL
COVERAGE AND DEEPNESS OF CONVECTION, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS POCKETS OF PWAT VALUES
COULD EXCEED 2.0 IN. REGARDLESS, THIS IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOWER 100S
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE UPPER RGV AS WELL
AS KICK HEAT INDICES DOWN TO AROUND 105-110 F ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT RISKS AND POCKETS OF MINOR.
FOLLOWING, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO ANOTHER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF,
RE-ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER/RAIN
CHANCES AND CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND; WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID
100S HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS RETURN BY
MONDAY, GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MAJOR, WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME,
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL SPSS AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY AS HEAT INDICES MAXIMIZE AROUND 108-111 F FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW PASSING LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE 15 TO 20 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF MVFR
CEILINGS COULD IMPACT MFE THROUGH AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RE-ENHANCING BACK
TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE TO
AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN TO 10% OR LESS BY NEXT MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) SEAS CONTINUE, WITH PERIODS
OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 80 96 79 / 10 0 20 0
HARLINGEN 100 76 97 75 / 10 0 20 0
MCALLEN 103 80 101 78 / 10 0 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 101 76 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 88 80 / 10 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 79 94 78 / 10 0 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...63-KC
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