306
FXUS64 KBRO 062322 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY FOR HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 F.
- DAILY LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OF 4) TODAY BECOME
MINOR (1 OF 4) TO MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT RISK
RETURNS TO MAJOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
CLEARING CLOUDS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AFTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING
ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB UNDER DAYTIME HEATING. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 6 PM
FOR HEAT INDICES OF 105-110, WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
OR SURPASS 111.
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY COPACETIC.
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THESE HIGHS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH
DAY OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY LOW AT 20% OR
LESS EACH AFTERNOON, LIMITED PRIMARILY EAST OF US281. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (STILL LOW, AROUND 30%)
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN,
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF AN INCH, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS, OR AREAS UNDER TRAINING STORMS.
INCREASED MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT
APPARENT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A REDUCED RISK (MINOR TO
MODERATE) OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS. THIS SOUNDS PLEASANT, BUT
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS UP TO A STICKY 110 HEAT INDEX THIS
WEEKEND. RIDGING EXPANDS OVER TX EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURNING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WORKWEEK, BUT WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT TO INCREASE YET
AGAIN. BY EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK, MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS RETURNS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING (AROUND 14-17 KNOTS,
GUSTING TO 22-25 KNOTS) ARE LIKELY TO SETTLE OUT OVERNIGHT TO A
GENTLE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZE BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO
SIMILAR SPEEDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PROB30S AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT KHRL AND KMFE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND/OR LOWER
CEILINGS. PROB30S MAY BE INTRODUCED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM LOW TODAY (20%),
PEAKING AT LOW TO MODERATE (30-50%) SUNDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY TO ONSHORE MODERATE TO GENTLE FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS
WILL PERSIST, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE NEARSHORE AND LAGUNA
MADRE EACH AFTERNOON. FLOW STRENGTHENS NEXT WEEK TO A MORE
CONSISTENT MODERATE, AND MAY RETURN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 96 79 94 / 0 10 10 20
HARLINGEN 76 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 20
MCALLEN 80 101 78 100 / 0 20 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 77 99 / 0 10 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 80 87 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 92 / 0 10 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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