844
FXUS64 KBRO 081134 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE ALONG THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY, INCREASING FROM A (10-15%) CHANCE
ON SATURDAY TO A 15-30% CHANCE ON SUNDAY.
- CHANCES OF RAIN MOSTLY DIMINISH BY MONDAY AND RISKS OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES GRADUALLY WORSEN FROM A MINOR TO MODERATE
RISK (LEVELS 1/4 AND 2/4) OVER THE WEEKEND TO MAJOR AND EXTREME
RISKS (LEVELS 3/4 AND 4/4) BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK.
- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEXT
WEEK AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB BACK TO 108-112+ F.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS RELATIVELY LOW MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
COINCIDE WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY FUELS REMAIN
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE WORSENING DROUGHT OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
OVERALL, VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PASSING OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DAYTIME CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A LOW (10-15%)
CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE ON SUNDAY
ALONG THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES, MOSTLY
LIMITED TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE RGV. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, ECMWF, HRRR AND THE RRFS THAT PWAT
VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY MAXIMIZE ON SUNDAY, RISING TO 1.9-2.2+
IN. ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DRIER, THUS LENDING TO SHORTER-LASTING
POP-UP CONVECTION, ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT COULD STILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SOME GUSTIER WINDS (UP TO AS
MUCH AS 30+ MPH) AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WITH PONDING ON THE
ROADS, REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. THANKFULLY AND HOPEFULLY, THIS RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BENEFICIAL, DROPPING ANYWHERE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH,
OR A LITTLE MORE, IN THE DEEPER CONVECTION, AS WELL AS REDUCE
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, WITH MOST INLAND AREAS RISING TO AROUND
97-100 F, WHILE LOWER 100S CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AS MOISTURE CONTENT BUILDS OVER THE
WEEKEND, MINOR TO MODERATE RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ON
SATURDAY BECOME A MAINLY MODERATE RISK ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND, RE-DOMINATING
AND CAUSING HEIGHTS TO RISE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION, DIMINISHING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SEABREEZE RAIN FROM
10-15% ON MONDAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 10% BY TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
DECREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD INLAND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 100S (MID/UPPER 100S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
THE UPPER RGV) BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY WARMING A FEW
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SPANS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONTINUED
PROCESSION OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS/ROCKIES AND
RESULTING TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE PROGGED TO ENHANCE
MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS OUR REGION AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15-20+ MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 25-35+ MPH, BY MONDAY AS
WELL.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A COUPLE OF FACTORS TO CONSIDER
NEXT WEEK. RISING DEWPOINT VALUES ARE ANTICPATED TO WORSEN RISKS
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FROM MODERATE, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR ON
MONDAY, TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. SPSS AND EVEN HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY AGAIN NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
AS HEAT INDICES RISE TO 108-111+ F. ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL BE WELCOMED, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS CONSIDERABLE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, MINIMIZING AROUND 25-50% EACH
AFTERNOON, COINCIDE WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS COMES IN
LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT DRY FUELS REMAIN ABUNDANT WITHIN THE
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) ACROSS NEARLY HALF OF THE REGION, MOST
CONCERNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE RGV, WHERE
THERE IS NOW A SEVERE DROUGHT (D2).
A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING, SHIFTING
EASTERLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY
BRIEFLY INCREASE WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE (1-3 FT) SEAS BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
WITH MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS BY MONDAY, WHEN PERIODS OF SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHORT-FUSED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER. LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND (20-40% CHANCE ON
SATURDAY AND 30-60% CHANCE ON SUNDAY) GRADUALLY DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 10% BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 79 95 80 / 10 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 97 75 96 76 / 10 0 20 0
MCALLEN 101 79 101 80 / 10 0 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 100 78 / 10 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 81 / 10 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 93 79 / 10 10 20 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...60-BE
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