756
FXUS64 KBRO 161644
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1144 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF IH-69C/US-281; BEST TIMING
BETWEEN 11AM-5PM CDT.
- THOUGH NO HEADLINES ARE OUT AT THIS TIME, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS; SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE
MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
HOT, MAINLY RAIN-FREE, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A STRONG AND BROAD 594-597 DAM
SUB-TROPICAL HEAT DOME REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
THE MID 100S. COMBINE THAT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS ACROSS
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST MOST
FAVORED DUE TO HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA DEPICTED ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR BAYVIEW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE IN ADDITION TO A
CUMULUS FIELD FROM THE UNCREASED SFC HEATING. HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP
UP POPS SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TODAY PRESENTS A LOWER, YET NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE BETTER DAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE LOW (20%)
PROBABILITIES FOR TODAY INLAND AND LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OVER
THE GULF WATERS TODAY, AND (20-30%) CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE BEING ALIGNED ALONG AND EAST OF THE IH-69C/US-
281 CORRIDOR. THE BEST TIMING FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11AM-5PM CDT.
THE PERSISTENTLY HOT AND DRY ANTECEDENT PATTERN WITH HIGH
EVAPORATION RATES AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AID IN
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES GET TO NEAR FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) CRITERIA. EVEN
THOUGH, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, WE
URGE THAT YOU CONTINUE TO EXERCISE FIRE WEATHER SAFETY MEASURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z
TAF CYCLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE WANING LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM IF NOT A SLIGHT COMPONENT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WIND SPEEDS UP TO 5 KTS. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE ONCE AGAIN
ON MONDAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, WINDS MAY INCREASE
OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH COULD REQUIRE SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 79 97 / 0 20 0 10
HARLINGEN 76 98 76 100 / 0 20 0 10
MCALLEN 80 101 79 102 / 0 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 102 77 103 / 0 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 80 89 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 94 78 96 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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