107
FXUS64 KBRO 172326 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF IH-69C/US-281; BEST TIMING BETWEEN 11AM-5PM CDT.
- THOUGH NO HEADLINES ARE OUT AT THIS TIME, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS; SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE
MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
HOT, MAINLY RAIN-FREE, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A STRONG AND BROAD 594-597
DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT DOME REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
THE MID 100S. COMBINE THAT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) AND
MAYBE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS ACROSS AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST MOST
FAVORED DUE TO HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
AS OF 11:50 AM CDT, THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
DATA DEPICTED A CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS BEGINNING TO BUBBLE UP. HAVE DECIDED TO
BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 20-30% THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST TIMING FOR ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11AM-5PM CDT
WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE BEING ALONG AND EAST OF THE IH-69C/US-
281 CORRIDOR.
THE PERSISTENTLY HOT AND DRY ANTECEDENT PATTERN WITH HIGH
EVAPORATION RATES AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AID IN
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY
IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES GET TO NEAR FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) CRITERIA.
EVEN THOUGH, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME, WE URGE THAT YOU CONTINUE TO EXERCISE FIRE WEATHER SAFETY
MEASURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, WINDS MAY INCREASE
OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH COULD REQUIRE SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 97 79 97 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 76 101 75 101 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 103 79 103 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 76 103 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 81 90 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 96 78 96 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...63-KC
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