410
FXUS64 KBRO 190345
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1045 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- HOT, DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR RISK (3 OF 4) OF HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 105 TO AROUND 110 DEGREES.
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO GUSTY CONDITIONS AND DRYING
FUELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
THE PERSISTENT 500MB RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EXTENDING INTO
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FARTHER EASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, HOT AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 105 DEGREES, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL
SUPPORT HEAT INDICES GENERALLY BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 111+ AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WHETHER A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(SPS) OR A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BE SURE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS AND ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE
YOU LOCK.
THE HOT, DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL INCREASE OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-69C/US 281.
GENERALLY LOW TO MARGINALLY MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
MODERATE AND GUSTY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT. HOWEVER, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 80 97 82 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 101 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 103 80 103 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 81 90 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 79 97 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...63-KC
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