001
FXUS64 KBRO 220347
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1047 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR RISK (3 OF 4) OF HEAT-RELATEDIMPACTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 105 TO AROUND 110 DEGREES.
- THE COMBINATION OF LOW MINIMUM RELATIVITY HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY FUELS,
AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
A 500 MB RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH VERY HOT AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES, EXCEPT NEAR
THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES GENERALLY BETWEEN
105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES MAY BRIEFLY REACH
111+ AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME POCKETS
OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW MINIMUM RELATIVITY HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY
FUELS, AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS PREVAIL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE AND GUSTY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAY
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, MARINERS CAN EXPECT GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 80 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 102 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 104 79 105 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 105 77 105 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...63-KC
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