666
FXUS64 KBRO 221730
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH "FLASH DROUGHT" SITUATION WORSENING.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR RISK (3 OF 4) OF HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS WILL WORSEN TO MAJOR TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS OVERNIGHT HEAT (UPPER 70S TO 80S FOR MOST
HOURS) ACCUMULATES WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN
PERSISTENT BETWEEN 100 (LOWER VALLEY) AND 107-108 (RIO GRANDE
PLAINS).
- HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG/EAST OF US 281/IH-69C NEXT
WEEK FOR AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 111 TO 114.
- THE COMBINATION OF LOW MINIMUM RELATIVITY HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY
FUELS, VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, AND "PULSE" GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE BROKEN RECORD PATTERN OF PERSISTENT HEAT, DRYNESS, AFTERNOON
PULSE WIND GUSTS (25 MPH OR SO) REMAINS THE STORY, AS THE LOCATION
OF THE SEASONALLY STRONG 500 MB RIDGE (HEAT DOME) IS LOCKED JUST
NORTH OF THE CLASSIC "LA CANICULA" POSITION (SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS/NORTHERN COAHUILA AND CHIHUAHUA) AND
EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS/NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. GLOBAL MODELS NUDGE THE CORE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED LA CANICULA POSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS GENERAL
LATE SUMMER (WEAK) TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID
ATLANTIC REGION.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE DOME NUDGES WEST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER, BUT ITS EASTWARD EXTENT
REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF, KEEPING OUR REGION RAIN-FREE.
A REASONABLE WORST-CASE COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...BUT NOTHING MORE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER, THEREFORE, IS ON REPEAT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO
SEE MORE PERIODS OF EAST-WEST MOVING CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS EACH DAY,
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MORE PICTURESQUE SUNRISES - BUT THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL HAVE NO INFLUENCE ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES, WHICH RISE
TO BETWEEN 100 (LOWER VALLEY-EASTERN KENEDY) TO 105-107 (UPPER
VALLEY/BRUSH COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE PLAINS), AND CONTINUE WITH SULTRY
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WARMEST WEST), ONLY FALLING TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 82 (RURAL TO URBAN) EACH MORNING. LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS AND THE NOTICEABLE LENGHTHENING DARKNESS WILL HELP
BRING THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE RURAL AREAS...BUT
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 3 DEGREES ABOVE LATE AUGUST
AVERAGES - WHICH HAVE JUST SLIPPED FROM THEIR ANNUAL PERCH ON THE
21ST.
AS FOR FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES (111 OR HIGHER FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS)?
CURRENT FORECASTS BRING THE POTENTIAL BACK FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF IH-69C/US 281 BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP OF HEAT AND
EVAPORATION DRYING THE GROUND WITH LITTLE TO NO WETTING DEW
SUGGESTS AFTERNOON RH (BASED ON DEWPOINTS) MAY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 105-110 IN ALL AREAS.
BOTTOM LINE? STAY COOL AS BEST YOU CAN - THERE IS NO RELIEF FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
IT'S MAINLY A VFR FORECAST, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS THE MAIN CLOUD FEATURE. EXPECT TO SEE FEW-
SCATTERED MAINLY VFR CUMULUS, FAVORING HARLINGEN/BROWNSVILLE
SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN 14-17Z BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT.
OTHERWISE, FOR THE PAST TWO MORNINGS, MCALLEN/EDINBURG AREA HAVE
FEATURED A SHORT (TEMPO) WINDOW OF LOW MVFR STRATOCUMULUS, SO WILL
ADD A GROUP TO COVER, MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z (5-9 AM). AS FOR
WINDS, WILL CONTINUE TO ADD GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING STEADILY, AND REMAINING
LIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE A MODEST PICKUP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF, CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WITH LOW SWELL PERIODS AND NO IMPACTFUL RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAT-GENERATED GRADIENT NEAR THE
COASTLINE AND ACROSS LAGUNA MADRE CREATE A BIT MORE WIND (AND
CHOP), BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS,
PRECLUDING EVEN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHILE WE'RE LIKELY TO FALL JUST SHORT OF FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
(I.E. 15-20+ 20 FOOT WIND), WE'RE ON THE RAZOR'S EDGE WHEN
CONSIDERING PULSE GUSTS. UNLIKE EARLIER THIS WEEK, HOWEVER, THE
GRADIENT DOES SLACKEN ENOUGH TO KEEP EVEN A REASONABLE WORST-CASE
GUST FACTOR TO 25 MPH ALONG/EAST OF IH-69C/US-281, AND 20 MPH TO
THE WEST. BUT THE COMBINATION OF FLASH DROUGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON RH TO FALL INTO THE 15-25% RANGE WEST OF IH-69C/US 281
(AND 25-35% EAST OF THERE) AS WELL AS RE-CURED FUELS BASED ON
VISUALS AND THE ABOVE-AVERAGE EVAPORATION RATES ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE WILDFIRE PREVENTION MESSAGE FRONT AND CENTER.
BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT KENEDY COUNTY, AND JUST A
SPARK COMBINED WITH EVEN A PULSE GUST COULD QUICKLY TURN INTO A
WILDFIRE THAT COULD SPREAD FAIRLY RAPIDLY. SINCE LATE JULY, THERE
WERE TWO LARGE WILDFIRES WITH NEARLY 1400 ACRES BURNED IN WESTERN
BROOKS - AN AREA THAT MISSED OUT ON TWO RAIN EVENTS NOT TOO FAR
AWAY (SOUTHWESTERN BROOKS). THE LAST TRULY BENEFICIAL RAIN OVER A
DECENT-SIZED AREA WAS ON AUGUST 2...AND THOSE BENEFITS ARE LONG
DRIED UP.
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WILDFIRE SAFETY AND PREVENTION UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
HOW HOT, AUGUST? THROUGH THE 21ST, RANKING IN THE TOP TWO OR
THREE ALL-TIME FOR MOST AVAILABLE STATIONS. RIVAL YEARS INCLUDE
2023 (TOPS FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS) AND 2009 (TOPS FOR MCALLEN).
2023 REMAINS THE HOTTEST METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (JUNE-AUGUST) AND
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER (JUNE 21 - SEPTEMBER 21, IN GENERAL)...BUT
2026 IS HOT ON ITS HEELS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN AROUND 3 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST,
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY TIE OR EVEN PUSH AHEAD OF 2023'S BENCHMARK.
HERE ARE THE CURRENT STATS FOR AUGUST, THROUGH THE 21ST:
LOCATION (SINCE) AUGUST (RANK) RECORD (YEAR)
BROWNSVILLE (1878) 90.0 (2) 90.5 (2023)
MCALLEN (1941) 91.5 (2) 92.3 (2009)
HARLINGEN (1912) 88.6 (5) 90.3 (2023)
MCCOOK (1942) 89.3 (4) 90.1 (1998)
PORT MANSFIELD (1958) 86.8 (2) 87.3 (2023)
RIO GRANDE CITY (1897)* 90.3 (3) 93.0 (1901)*
WESLACO (1914) 89.5 (2) 90.4 (2023)
RAYMONDVILLE (1913) 89.7 (1) 2026
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 99 80 99 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 75 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 78 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 105 76 105 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52-GOLDSMITH
LONG TERM....52-GOLDSMITH
AVIATION...52-GOLDSMITH
FIRE WEATHER...52-GOLDSMITH
CLIMATE...52-GOLDSMITH
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